By jwr |

Where was Hari Seldon? He would have predicted all this and the effects would have been much softer.

Semiconductor shortage

A global shortage of semiconductors is growing out of control. Almost all types of electronic goods are affected, from smartphones and gaming equipment to vehicles and kitchen appliances. While the semiconductor manufacturers struggle to supply their largest customers like Apple and Samsung, smaller customers like automobile and appliance manufacturers are experiencing delays that are now halting the production lines: just a small chip missing and the vehicle can't get finished (The Guardian).

How could this happen?

The basis lies again, of course, in the corona crisis with initial production delays, now alleviated. And then a couple of additional developments.

  • People bought more stay-at-home electronic goods in the pandemic, increasing demand: TVs, home computers, game consoles, 5G enabled phones, and whatever you yourself bought to stave off boredom.
  • Vehicle manufacturers have now finally and en masse decided on electric cars, mostly electronics-stuffed. All this requires semiconductors.
  • Not described elsewhere, but a known fact, is when demand of certain items increases China, it is likely to affect the entire globe. We note here baby milk powder, hardwood, (protected) exotic animals, and wild mushrooms as simple examples.
  • Then D. Trump (US National Vulgarist) added the high-tech front to the US-China Trade War: semiconductors. And there you have it, a perfect storm.

Who makes the chips?

While a number of major tech companies claim to be chip manufacturers, many of those companies simply aren't. They farm the manufacturing out to technologically adept lower income countries: China, Taiwan, South Korea. Note here the new-fangled idiosyncrasy of terms: a manufacturer who does not manufacture remains to be called a manufacturer, albeit a "fabless manufacturer", while the jargon for an actual manufacturer is not called a manufacturer, but a "foundry". The top 5 foundries, listed roughly according to size:

  • TSMC (Taiwan), leader, cutting edge chips, standard chips
  • Samsung Foundries (South Korea), Intel (USA), SMIC (China), for standard chips
  • Global Foundries (USA), Skywater (USA), both for specialty chips

Note: Of course there are many smaller foundries all over, but generally a large unreal manufacturer would avoid to get the components for a specific item from a slew of different smaller companies. Note also that world leader TSMC also operates semiconductor foundries in China, producing standard chips. And also note that China is on turbodrive to expand local semiconductor manufacturing for standard and high-tech chips.

A complete list of List of Semiconductor fabrication plants is shown in Wikipedia. Toggle the list for Production Capacity (size). Also toggle it for Process Technology (sophistication) to see who manufactures the newest/ fastest/ smallest high-end chips (indicated by 3nm or 5nm), that is by the way TSMC in Taiwan, possibly by order and design of Apple.

Geopolitical aspects

We've already seen the dependence of all modern products and manufacturing on these semiconductors. The concentration of the bulk of manufacturing in an area where one single country, China, is showing increasing influence, to the degree of threats and even military grandstanding, should be seen as a global geopolitical socio-economic risk.

Whatever the few pennies it costs more, these semiconductors should also be made on grand scale in other areas.

Strategic materials

In cases of crises or conflicts, the obvious aim is to secure needed strategic materials. These used to be oil, steel, coal, food, but also important manufacturing. While the fundamentals of strategic materials remain, the content changes, and now includes rare metals, water and... semiconductor manufacturing.

Just one example. "Beijing’s main problem is the manufacturing of high-end chips. Huawei’s Kirin chipsets are made by the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (TSMC) using American technology." (TRT World). Now that's quite a conflagration of dependencies, and it's already causing trouble.

Low Tech

Apparently at mid 2021, the greatest bottleneck are the small IC chips that control larger or smaller LCD screens. Specifically these chips are not made in high tech IC foundries making high-end 10 or 7 nanometer chips, but in rather older, run of the mill factories making 40 to 150 nanometer chips. As everyone has been rushing to upgrade (ostensibly to make more money), the "manufacturers" were caught flatfooted when demand for cheap ICs controlling mundane LCD screens suddenly mushroomed during the pandemic. And now, experts expect the backlog to last well into 2023!

What's next?

Of course, the semiconductor sector will normalize at some time, hopefully with more geographical diversification. But as before, chips are not likely to get less expensive.

As of mid 2021 the pandemic continues to cause a slew of shortages, either caused by production issues, export stops, changed consumer behavior, or, like in China, industrial catch-up growth - again affecting the globe.

Of course, first it was a shortage of personal protection equipment (PPE), then a shortage in long-distance freight, then a shortage of containers, then a shortage of semiconductors. As India undergoes a catastrophic third wave, it halts all exports of the vaccines expected in many, mostly developing countries. But as economies begin to recuperate the scope of shortages expands from aluminum foil to construction wood.

This leads to price increases. Some of those increases will not be temporary, so according to some specialists, "inflation" is on the loom...

Then add to the that mix: Russia's vicious war against the Ukraine, with a worldwide gas, oil and grains crisis. This is definitely not funny anymore.

---

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jun/10/china-and-physics…

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/22/chinas-war-chest-how-the-…

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/14/us-microchip-indu…

https://eand.co/why-everything-is-suddenly-getting-more-expensive-and-w… And now, shortages in just about everything - but read this with caution, some doubtful "facts".

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-tiny-1-chip-that-is-behind-record…

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-06-02/china-s-inflation…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-17/inflation-rate-2021-…

https://www.trtworld.com/magazine/chip-wars-us-china-and-the-battle-for…

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/10/whats-causing-the-chip-shortage-affecti…

https://hbr.org/2021/02/why-were-in-the-midst-of-a-global-semiconductor…

https://deepforest.substack.com/p/a-tour-of-the-semiconductor-industry

https://deepforest.substack.com/p/an-introduction-to-semiconductor

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semiconductor_Manufacturing_International…

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TSMC

History of TSMC:

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1RMr9lzlgrReruoosnoHLIZ0hHbqJT5Kq7hZ…

 

 

Comments

on line pharmacy (not verified)

3 months 4 weeks ago

I love it when folks get together and share thoughts. Great website, stick with it!

canada pharmac… (not verified)

3 months 4 weeks ago

I do not know if it's just me or if everyone else experiencing issues with your site. It appears as though some of the text in your posts are running off the screen. Can someone else please comment and let me know if this is happening to them too? This could be a issue with my web browser because I've had this happen before. Appreciate it

order stromect… (not verified)

3 months 4 weeks ago

It's hard to come by knowledgeable people on this subject, but you sound like you know what you're talking about! Thanks

stromectol tab… (not verified)

3 months 4 weeks ago

It's genuinely very complicated in this active life to listen news on Television, so I just use world wide web for that purpose, and get the most recent news.

canadian gover… (not verified)

3 months 4 weeks ago

I'm really enjoying the theme/design of your website. Do you ever run into any web browser compatibility problems? A couple of my blog readers have complained about my site not operating correctly in Explorer but looks great in Chrome. Do you have any recommendations to help fix this problem?

stromectol espana (not verified)

3 months 3 weeks ago

Hello mates, how is everything, and what you desire to say concerning this piece of writing, in my view its actually amazing for me.

stromectol tab… (not verified)

3 months 3 weeks ago

Good post. I learn something totally new and challenging on websites I stumbleupon on a daily basis. It's always interesting to read articles from other writers and practice a little something from their websites.

stromectol onl… (not verified)

3 months 3 weeks ago

Howdy! Do you know if they make any plugins to help with SEO? I'm trying to get my blog to rank for some targeted keywords but I'm not seeing very good success. If you know of any please share. Appreciate it!

stromectol buy… (not verified)

3 months 3 weeks ago

It's actually very difficult in this busy life to listen news on TV, thus I just use the web for that purpose, and get the hottest news.

canadian pharm… (not verified)

3 months 3 weeks ago

Thank you for the auspicious writeup. It in fact was a amusement account it. Look advanced to more added agreeable from you! However, how could we communicate?

stromectol (not verified)

3 months 3 weeks ago

It's appropriate time to make a few plans for the future and it is time to be happy. I have learn this post and if I may just I want to suggest you few fascinating things or suggestions. Perhaps you can write subsequent articles relating to this article. I wish to read even more things approximately it!

walmart pharma… (not verified)

3 months 3 weeks ago

I loved as much as you will receive carried out right here. The sketch is attractive, your authored material stylish. nonetheless, you command get got an nervousness over that you wish be delivering the following. unwell unquestionably come more formerly again as exactly the same nearly very often inside case you shield this hike.

buy ivermectin… (not verified)

3 months 3 weeks ago

You've made some good points there. I checked on the web for more info about the issue and found most people will go along with your views on this website.

stromectol onl… (not verified)

3 months 3 weeks ago

Hey just wanted to give you a brief heads up and let you know a few of the images aren't loading correctly. I'm not sure why but I think its a linking issue. I've tried it in two different web browsers and both show the same outcome.

best online in… (not verified)

3 months 3 weeks ago

An outstanding share! I have just forwarded this onto a friend who had been conducting a little research on this. And he actually ordered me breakfast because I found it for him... lol. So let me reword this.... Thank YOU for the meal!! But yeah, thanx for spending the time to talk about this matter here on your web page.

buy viagra pha… (not verified)

3 months 3 weeks ago

These are really enormous ideas in about blogging. You have touched some nice points here. Any way keep up wrinting.

stromectol onl… (not verified)

3 months 3 weeks ago

My partner and I stumbled over here coming from a different website and thought I might check things out. I like what I see so i am just following you. Look forward to going over your web page repeatedly.

canadian pharm… (not verified)

3 months 3 weeks ago

Hey there! I know this is somewhat off-topic but I needed to ask. Does managing a well-established blog like yours require a large amount of work? I am completely new to running a blog but I do write in my diary everyday. I'd like to start a blog so I can easily share my own experience and views online. Please let me know if you have any kind of suggestions or tips for brand new aspiring blog owners. Thankyou!

canadian pharm… (not verified)

3 months 3 weeks ago

Hello! Someone in my Myspace group shared this website with us so I came to look it over. I'm definitely loving the information. I'm bookmarking and will be tweeting this to my followers! Wonderful blog and wonderful design.

aarp recommend… (not verified)

3 months 3 weeks ago

I am regular visitor, how are you everybody? This paragraph posted at this web page is actually nice.

dosage for str… (not verified)

3 months 3 weeks ago

Ahaa, its good dialogue concerning this paragraph here at this webpage, I have read all that, so at this time me also commenting at this place.

canada pharmac… (not verified)

3 months 3 weeks ago

This website was... how do you say it? Relevant!! Finally I have found something that helped me. Cheers!

canadian pharm… (not verified)

3 months 3 weeks ago

I do believe all the concepts you've offered on your post. They're really convincing and can definitely work. Still, the posts are too short for newbies. May just you please extend them a little from subsequent time? Thank you for the post.

stromectol france (not verified)

3 months 3 weeks ago

What's up mates, its impressive piece of writing concerning educationand completely defined, keep it up all the time.

stromectol buy… (not verified)

3 months 3 weeks ago

When someone writes an piece of writing he/she maintains the plan of a user in his/her mind that how a user can be aware of it. Thus that's why this post is perfect. Thanks!

canadian pharm… (not verified)

3 months 3 weeks ago

I really like your blog.. very nice colors & theme. Did you design this website yourself or did you hire someone to do it for you? Plz reply as I'm looking to design my own blog and would like to know where u got this from. many thanks

stromectol purchase (not verified)

3 months 3 weeks ago

I have learn some just right stuff here. Certainly value bookmarking for revisiting. I wonder how so much attempt you set to create this type of great informative website.

stromectol overdose (not verified)

3 months 3 weeks ago

Do you have a spam issue on this blog; I also am a blogger, and I was wanting to know your situation; we have developed some nice procedures and we are looking to swap strategies with other folks, please shoot me an email if interested.

canada pharmac… (not verified)

3 months 3 weeks ago

Thanks on your marvelous posting! I seriously enjoyed reading it, you are a great author. I will make certain to bookmark your blog and may come back from now on. I want to encourage you to definitely continue your great job, have a nice holiday weekend!

buy stromectol (not verified)

3 months 2 weeks ago

Hello! Someone in my Facebook group shared this site with us so I came to check it out. I'm definitely loving the information. I'm book-marking and will be tweeting this to my followers! Terrific blog and amazing design and style.

canadian pharm… (not verified)

3 months 2 weeks ago

Quality content is the secret to be a focus for the viewers to go to see the web site, that's what this web page is providing.

stromectol buy… (not verified)

3 months 2 weeks ago

Hi to every one, it's in fact a pleasant for me to pay a quick visit this website, it contains precious Information.

stromectol doses (not verified)

3 months 2 weeks ago

What's up mates, its great article about teachingand entirely defined, keep it up all the time.

canadian cialis (not verified)

3 months 2 weeks ago

This is very interesting, You're a very skilled blogger. I have joined your rss feed and look forward to seeking more of your great post. Also, I've shared your web site in my social networks!

buy stromectol… (not verified)

3 months 2 weeks ago

Hey There. I found your blog using msn. This is an extremely well written article. I'll make sure to bookmark it and return to read more of your useful info. Thanks for the post. I'll certainly comeback.

dose of stromectol (not verified)

3 months 2 weeks ago

I'm gone to inform my little brother, that he should also pay a visit this web site on regular basis to obtain updated from most up-to-date news.

stromectol buy… (not verified)

3 months 2 weeks ago

Hey there, You've done a great job. I'll definitely digg it and personally suggest to my friends. I'm confident they'll be benefited from this site.

ivermectin tablets (not verified)

3 months 2 weeks ago

Hello every one, here every person is sharing these kinds of experience, so it's good to read this weblog, and I used to pay a quick visit this weblog every day.

canadian drugs… (not verified)

3 months 2 weeks ago

Hi! Would you mind if I share your blog with my facebook group? There's a lot of folks that I think would really enjoy your content. Please let me know. Many thanks

buy ivermectin… (not verified)

3 months 2 weeks ago

I am really glad to read this webpage posts which carries plenty of valuable data, thanks for providing these kinds of information.

canadian pharm… (not verified)

3 months 2 weeks ago

Wonderful goods from you, man. I have understand your stuff previous to and you are just extremely excellent. I really like what you have acquired here, certainly like what you are saying and the way in which you say it. You make it enjoyable and you still care for to keep it smart. I cant wait to read much more from you. This is actually a tremendous web site.

buy stromectol uk (not verified)

3 months 2 weeks ago

My brother suggested I might like this website. He was totally right. This post actually made my day. You can not imagine simply how much time I had spent for this info! Thanks!

canadian pharm… (not verified)

3 months 2 weeks ago

What's up mates, its fantastic article about tutoringand entirely defined, keep it up all the time.

walmart pharma… (not verified)

3 months 2 weeks ago

Hello, every time i used to check webpage posts here in the early hours in the daylight, as i like to gain knowledge of more and more.

canadian pharc… (not verified)

3 months 2 weeks ago

What's Happening i'm new to this, I stumbled upon this I have discovered It positively useful and it has helped me out loads. I hope to contribute & help other users like its aided me. Great job.

stromectol tablets (not verified)

3 months 2 weeks ago

Magnificent items from you, man. I've take note your stuff prior to and you're simply extremely wonderful. I really like what you've bought here, certainly like what you're saying and the way in which you are saying it. You are making it entertaining and you still take care of to stay it wise. I can't wait to read far more from you. This is really a great site.

order stromect… (not verified)

3 months 2 weeks ago

I am curious to find out what blog platform you are working with? I'm having some small security issues with my latest site and I would like to find something more risk-free. Do you have any recommendations?

online pharmac… (not verified)

3 months 2 weeks ago

Aw, this was a very good post. Spending some time and actual effort to make a great article… but what can I say… I procrastinate a lot and don't seem to get nearly anything done.

Add new comment

  • Allowed HTML tags: <a href hreflang title rel> <em> <strong> <cite> <blockquote cite> <code> <ul type> <ol start type> <li> <dl> <dt> <dd> <h2 id> <h3 id> <h4 id> <h5 id> <h6 id> <sup> <sub>
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.
  • Web page addresses and email addresses turn into links automatically.